CLARITY Act Odds Jump Above 32% After Major Ethics Concession

The chances of the CLARITY Act becoming law have climbed above 32 percent following a late surge in optimism. Senate Republicans released a final compromise draft this week, aiming to resolve long standing disputes that previously stalled the legislation. Traders on Polymarket pushed the bill’s odds to their highest point since early August as political momentum shifted in favor of the proposal.

A key factor in this change is a significant concession regarding financial ethics. Donald Trump agreed to a proposal that mandates federal officials with large crypto holdings to either sell them or place them into a blind trust. This move addresses a primary complaint from Democratic lawmakers who were concerned about potential conflicts of interest among elected officials and judges.

Beyond ethics, the updated bill includes a new stablecoin circuit breaker designed to protect community banks from sudden deposit shifts. It also refines protections for software developers and clarifies the reach of current commodity regulations. Supporters now argue that the bill includes over 120 changes requested by Democrats during the last year of negotiations.

Everything hinges on a procedural vote scheduled for Tuesday. To move forward, the bill needs 60 votes to invoke cloture and begin formal Senate consideration. While the latest compromises improve the odds, the ultimate success of the bill depends on whether enough Democrats join Republicans to hit that 60 vote threshold.