Could Bitcoin Fall to $38,000? History Says It Is Possible

Bitcoin has had a tough run compared to other risk assets lately, and historical trends suggest the pain might not be over yet. A new industry report warns that if current market patterns continue, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could slide down to the $38,000 to $39,000 range by October.

While tech stocks and artificial intelligence equities have surged, Bitcoin has struggled. The digital asset recently traded around $64,809, representing a major drop from its all time high of $126,080. Analysts point out that this current slump is mostly due to supply mechanics rather than overall investor fear. The current pullback is starting to look a lot like previous market resets in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

It is not all bad news, however. Bitcoin experienced its least volatile year ever in 2025, which means this current downturn could end up being much milder than previous crypto winters. Additionally, institutional support and potential regulatory shifts, such as the passage of the CLARITY Act, could set the stage for a quick recovery. A clearer regulatory framework in the US would boost confidence across the entire market.